I quit Runescape almost 4 years ago, but i actively play a role in the Runescape economy. How? I own several rares and i often make sure to login and make some money merchant-ing. However, i’ve noticed that from October, 2009 up till today we have seen a steady increase in the prices of rares. Why? I’m not quite sure, usually around this time of the year the rares plummet in prices but we have yet to see that type of trend in the game. Whats even more interesting to hear is that party-hat’s have stayed pretty consistent in prices while Halloween masks and Santa hats have risen tremendously.

Is it possible that the prices of these items are dependent upon the intervention of long time merchants like myself? or is it a natural supply and demand issue?

This is the first part in a four part series on GE trading.  When the Grand Exchange first opened in Runescape, it ushered in a whole new era of trading.   No more sitting in Fally W2 and hoping for items you needed, or begging in banks for some obscure item. It also opened up some huge opportunities for trading and new and more effective ways of making gold in Runescape.

In the first of four posts on making GP with the GE, I will outline some effective trading strategies (Fundamental, technical and speculative), and in the last I will debunk some of the poor strategies (like buy outs for example). If, after you are done reading fee free to post any questions you may have. There is also a forum over at The Grand Exchange (Thegrandexchange.com) where you can register and ask specific questions about trading and the various methods I will outline here.

Part I – Fundamental Trading

First off, I will start by saying that fundy trading is the easiest and fastest way to make money off the GE. It is fairly straightforward, and is based on real stock trading methods. The kind of trade you do also determines which items you will trade.

There are three prerequisites for items to determine if they are a good thing to buy as a fundy trade. They are:

1. The item must be traded in high volume (Anything in the top 100 most traded items list is good)

2. The item needs to be used up in the process of skilling (People use them up in large quantities)

3. The price graph must be relatively straight (little volatility)

The goal with a fundamental trade is a 5% profit. In general, buying at 2.5% below med and selling at 2.5% above will accomplish that. Done on a consistent basis, you will see your money double every 14 trades. (See the rule of 72 for further study of the reasons for that).

Why high volume? You need lots of buyers and sellers. Items like gold leaf, for example, are used in the ‘value chain’ of making gilded items in construction, but there are so few traded on the GE that it is nearly impossible to make money off them. Teak planks on the other hand are traded in huge volumes, as well as being used far more frequently in skilling.

Finally, why a straight line? You don’t want to choose an item that might jump down after you purchase it. Coal is another example. It is used up in large quantities, and is the 19th most traded item, with 97 million chunks of coal trading hands yesterday. With a 4 hour limit of 10k coal, it is impossible to manipulate, as it is not a matter of purchasing power or GP at that point. You would need a clan 20,000 members strong buying and selling 10k coal each to even make a dent in the price, and no one has anywhere near those numbers, not to mention all of the coal miners would keep pumping cheap coal into the GE to offset any attempted price increase.

An example of value chain for Rune Essence: Rune ess is mined, air runes are crafted, water blast is used to kill an NPC. The final product is a drop that you can either bank or sell (or leave on the ground). Either way the ess is converted and finally used up in the process. Why does it remain flat? As rune crafters skill, they buy rune ess when it is cheap and mine it when it is expensive, keeping the price relatively stable.

As a beginner, once you go through the initial work of finding some items, you can continue to trade them without constant checking of the prices in the GE, making fundy trading ideal for those who either don’t have the time or the inclination to check the market regularly. 90% Of my trades are fundy trades, as I can pull a 5% profit in 5-6 hours. That beats the pants off the return you would get with a buyout clan that only makes 5% every time the GE updates (26-30 hours).

Jagex has always had a smear campaign against autoing/macroing/botting. Most players listen to them and their warnings of “If you do it, we will catch you, and you will be banned.” Out of fear for their precious accounts, people don’t even look for cheats.

I want to tell you otherwise.

I have played RuneScape for roughly 4 years. It will be 5 this June, not counting the breaks I have taken. For most of those 4 years, I was the model player. I reported players when I thought it was neccessary, I didn’t break rules (except swearing, but hey, that’s been lifted a bit) and most of all, I didn’t bot. RuneScape was never really boring. I was a member for most of the time, and so I had plenty to do. RuneScape was good.

Shortly before 2008 breathed its last breath, I re-kindled a friendship with an old mate. He introduced me to sites such as Sythe and Fagex, and taught me the art of scamming. Together we scammed two accounts, and several membership PINs. Sythe and Fagex also have a RSBot section, and I looked through it and eventually downloaded RSBot.

I wish I had done it sooner. RSBot is easily the best thing I have done in my RuneScape career. I am botting right now! Jagex claims they will find you, and yet in 3+ months of near constant botting, I have not been warned nor banned.

As the title proclaims, robots don’t get Carpal Tunnel. If RuneScape is getting boring, you can do what I always did, and take a break. Alternatively, you can take the step and get RSBot. You will never be the same.

Most people know about the supply-and-demand-philosophy at the Grand Exchange: When there is large demand for an item, the price goes up, and if it’s not wanted, it drops. But what if RuneScape Investors joined together, buying items at high quantities, and eventually selling them? With enough gold in the market, these investors could drastically influence the G.E.

What the scenario mentioned above is called is a Merchanting Clan, or a group of investors who invest in the same thing. Many merchanting clans have millions in the market (a few clans are expected to have close to a billion) meaning that they can either crash the price of an item, or catapult it. With the exception of price-locked items due to Jagex updates, this usually works. Most merchanting clans make the Clan Name the item to buy, and say when to sell it. The only downside is that when the item is sold, the market is often flooded with so many orders that many investors cannot sell it, or lose lots of money. 

With a merchanting clan, your  prospects for making money are greatly increased. Usually, the price will increase. However, make sure you sell before the “Dump ” order comes in, or you’ll be caught in a stampede of selling. If you are interested in a clan, try “efd923″. The item to buy is posted in the Clan Name, and the clan is reasonably large. Try looking around for other clans too, and diversify your investments. But be warned: Merchant clans are NOT for the long-term; on the contrary, they usually employ a buy-one-day, sell-three-days-later technique. Forget to sell your items, and you’ll probably be left with huge profit loss when everybody in the clan does.

As Real World Economy retreats, so does Membership and P2P items

GRAND EXCHANGE, VARROCK, WORLD 2- It was just 1 year ago that the life of a P2P player seemed perfect. Cash was flowing freely, and member items were stable. And with the creation of the Grand Exchange,  the wealth of investors soared tremendously. Now, both Members and Free Players are bracing for a serious shock to hit the Exchange market. Most are expecting many member objects to crash, and many F2P objects to rise. Why? It’s simple: Less members are subscribed currently, meaning less members are buying. Some players have even cut their Internet subscription. This creates less demand, and a possible massive shock to the RuneScape Economy.

         There have always been more Free-to-Play players than members, meaning that some items are more valuable if they are Free-to-Play. For example, players will pay almost 10 times the amount of a Dragon weapon for a Corrupt Dragon weapon that degrades. Why? Because Corrupt Dragon is Free-to-Play, but plain Dragon isn’t. However, with even less members placing orders in the Grand Exchange, we might well see prices sink incredibly for member objects. But with Non-member objects, investors are holding their breath, hoping for an increase in valuable Free-to-Play items like swordfish, lobster, etc. These will become the Manta Ray and Shark of RuneScape, as members switch to Free-to-Play worlds. Other items that require to be made or aquired in Member worlds may also rise, such as Green Dragonhide.

         Wealth has also been decreasing for members, as they either cannot make money on Members’ servers or cannot sell their items for higher prices. One former member, Hulpul, commented on the matter. “My membership expired about a week and a half ago,” says Mr. Hulpul. “I just didn’t want to renew it. When I was a member, though, I made my 1 million gold in about 3 days off of slaying dragons. Now, I pretty much can’t do anything as profitable.” What this RuneScape millionaire  says is true. Very few things in Free-to-Play worlds are as profitable as things in member worlds. A drop in total wealth is expected greatly.

         However, many players doubt that membership decreases will harm the RuneScape economy. One player, Blaze1982, claims that General

Stores and monster drops will keep the Economy afloat. For instance, Rune Platebodies and Green Dragonhide Armour may be obtained from Oziarch, who has an unlimited supply. The same goes with arrows, which can be bought from a range store. But whether or not these unlimited general stores are a lifeline to the RuneScape economy entirely depends upon whether or not players buy or sell on the Grand Exchange. Most players do all their shopping at the Grand Exchange, and few are loyal to the specialty shops located around RuneScape. An entire merchanting clan, efd923, has been investing in Member objects despite the current situation.

         However, one thing is for certain: during these tough times, RuneScape WILL change, and there WILL be a drop in membership subscriptions. And member items probably WILL NOT rise; most have been dropping already. Most Grand Exchange analysts are advising players not keep their investments in member objects, and are suggesting to buy stock in top-of-the-line non-member objects like Rune armour, Food, Corrupt Dragon, etc. A word to the wise: If you’re an investor, watch out for the possibility of a crash in the market